Foreign investors could once barely imagine that China would invade neighbouring Taiwan, but with Donald Trump as president of the United States, many view it as a tail-risk scenario they must prepare for,

Taiwanese authorities have arrested two Chinese nationals who sailed over in a small boat and attempted to land on an island. It is the third incident this month in which Chinese nationals appear to have reached Taiwan by boat, stoking security concerns.

Whether all this comes in time remains to be seen. Military analysts fear that China could invade Taiwan as early as 2027. If war comes, Taiwan’s hope and expectation is that the United States will enter the fray. Wargames point to costly fighting and losses if that happens, including the specter of potential escalation to nuclear war.