2 days ago · PECOTA simulates the season over and over to project what might happen for every team, and there are plenty of noteworthy projections for this year. Remember, standings projections aren't meant to be a perfect crystal ball for exactly how the season will shake out -- they're just an attempt to use all the information we have to find the most likely outcome for …

4 days ago · Find out more about our PECOTA projections. Read the release notes.

PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, [1] is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.

4 days ago · Traditionally, PECOTA projects individual batting events: not only strikeouts and walks, but singles, doubles, triples, home runs, etc. However, a projection is usually graded on composite run value. If the final run value is not accurate enough, you need to identify the problematic event and improve that model. Perfectly doable, but always ...

3 days ago · PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance. PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season.

2 days ago · PECOTA cannot necessarily project injuries. In 2023, the Yankees were viewed like the 99-win team in 2022, who made it through that season mostly healthy until late injuries to DJ LeMahieu, Andrew ...

3 days ago · PECOTA also gave the Dodgers 100% odds of making the playoffs in 2025, and within that is 98.1% chance of reaching the NL Division Series. They are the only team Baseball Prospectus has projected ...

3 days ago · PECOTA gives the Twins a 62.9% chance to make the playoffs, a 45.3% chance to reach the divisional round, and a 4.7% chance to win the World Series. For context, that’s the ninth-highest ...

3 days ago · For 2025, PECOTA sees the Yankees winning 89.7 games, the highest total of any American League team and the fourth-highest win total in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8), Atlanta ...

3 days ago · Maybe PECOTA wouldn’t actually identify the Cubs as the third best team in baseball if all schedules were exactly balanced, but it seems apparent that they’d be way up there. The projections on win totals – again, these are median projections – are so conservative across the board. Just those three teams are projected to win over 90 ...